Hurricane Isaias
 
Hurricane Isaias became our 2nd hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thursday night as it approached the southern Bahamas. Isaias is also our ninth named storm of the season and it is also the earliest that we've ever had nine named storms. The previous record was Irene on August 7th back in 2005.
 

Tracking Isaias

According to NOAA's NHC, Isaias should remain at hurricane status through much of the weekend as it moves through the Bahamas and scrapes the east coast of Florida. The red colors below indicate hurricane warnings, which includes parts of Florida as well! By early next week, Isaias could be a Tropical Storm, potentially making landfall near South Carolina. Here are some Key Messages from NOAA's NHC regarding Hurricane Isaias:

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of the Bahamas through Saturday, and Hurricane Warnings are in effect.
2. Hurricane conditions are expected along portions of the Florida east coast late Saturday and Saturday night, and a Hurricane Warning has been issued. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
3. Dangerous storm surge is possible along the Florida east coast from Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach where water rises of 2 to 4 feet above ground level are possible along the immediate coastline and adjacent waterways. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials.
4. Isaias will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas across south to east-central Florida, and across the Carolinas to the mid Atlantic. Isolated minor river flooding is possible across the eastern Carolinas and into Virginia early next week.
5. There is a risk of impacts from winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge spreading along much of the the U.S. east coast through early next week, and interests there should monitor the progress of Isaias and updates to the forecast.


Peak Storm Surge

3. Dangerous storm surge is possible along the Florida east coast from Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach where water rises of 2 to 4 feet above ground level are possible along the immediate coastline and adjacent waterways. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials.


 
Heavy Rainfall Potential
 
Hurricane Isaias will bring heavy rainfall from the Bahamas to parts of the Eastern US. As much as 6" to 12" of rain could be possible across the Bahamas, while 4" to 6" of rain could be possible from eastern Florida to the Carolinas and into the Mid-Atlantic States.
 


Saturday Weather Outlook for MSP

The Saturday weather outlook for the Twin Cities doesn't look too bad through the first half of the day. We should start off with some sunshine, but weather turns a bit unsettled as a cool front sags south. There's a risk of showers and storms after 12pm, which could linger through 6pm or 7pm in the metro. 


Saturday Meteograms for Minneapolis

We will have quiet weather conditions during the early part of the day Saturday with temps warming through the 70s. High temps will reach the low to mid 80s by the afternoon with a chance of showers and storms from 12PM to 6pm or 7pm. Dewpoints will also climb into the low/mid 60s by the afternoon, which will be about the highest they'll be over the next several days. Dewpoints by early next week will drop into the upper 40s and low/mid 50s across the state, which will feel almost fall-like!!


High Temps on Saturday

High temps on Saturday wll be at or slightly below average in the Twin Cities metro for the First day of August, but folks acros much of the rest of the state should only warm into the 70s, which will be nearly -5F below average. A cool front will also bring isolated chances of showers and storms to many across the state.


 
General Thunderstorm Risk Saturday
 
According to NOAA's SPC, there is a general thunderstorm risk across the state on Saturday. While we don't expect any widespread severe weather, there could be a few isolated pockets of heavy rain during the afternoon, where some of the more vigorous storms develop. 
 

 
Isolated Pockets of Heavier Rainfall PM Saturday
 
A cool front sweeping through the region this weekend could bring a few isolated pockets of heavy rain to parts of the state, mainly PM Saturday. There may still be a few lingering T-Showers AM Sunday, but we should see improving weather conditions PM Sunday.
 

 
Weather Outlook From AM Saturday to AM Monday
 
A cool front sweeping across the state on Saturday will kick out a few showers and storms during the PM hours. There may be a few lingering T-Showers early Sunday, but much of the rain will exist the region through the day. In the wake of this front, we'll have cooler and much less humid air in place through the early part of next week. 
 

 
Drought Update
 
The lastest update from the Drought Monitor shows a nice reduction in drought conditions across parts of the state. Thanks to recent rains over the last 7 to 14 days, we've seen an improvement in drought conditions! Good news, Moderate Drought dropped from 17% last week to only 8% this week. With that said, some locations around the state are still nearly -2" to -5" below average precipitation since January 1st.

 
Extended Forecast
 
Temps on Saturday will warm to near average with a chance of showers and storms during the afternoon hours. There may be a few lingering T-Storms early Sunday, but things sould settle down during the day. The big story will be the much cooler air moving in through the next several days! High temps will only warm into the 70s, which will be nearly -5F to -10F below average. We should see readings get back into te 80s late next week.
 
 

Dogday Cicadas Beginning To Buzz in Neighborhoods Near You

If you've had a chance to poke your head outside for any length of time over the last few days, you may have heard some loud buzzing. If you're wondering what it is, you can thank your local cicadas. According to the University of Minnesota, cicadas are generally present from July to September and are often called "Dogday Cicadas" because they can generally be heard during the dogdays of summer, which officially run from July 22nd to August 22nd. An excerpt from Yesterday's Island suggests that cicadas are natures thermometer: "According to folk legend, when you hear the first song of the dog-day cicadas, it means there’s just six weeks until frost. While this may not be a precise predictor, there is some merit to the claim. Dog-day cicadas, as their name implies, appear during the long, hot summer days of late July and August."
 
 
(Image Below Courtesy: University of Minnesota Extension)

Earliest (Fall) 32F Minimum Temperature at MSP Airport

If you believe the dogday cicada folk legend, when you hear the first song of the dog-day cicadas, it means there’s just six weeks until frost... that would mean we could see our first frost by the beginning of September! Keep in mind that our average first frost is right around October 11th/12th in the metro. However, our earliest frost was on September 3rd, 1974, when we dropped to 32F at the MSP Aiport!! Our most recent September frost happened on September 24th, 2000, when we dropped to 31F. On the other hand, St. Cloud, MN typically sees their first frost at the end of September, nearly 2 weeks before the Twin Cities metro sees a frost.


 
100F Days at MSP
 
The last time we hit 100F was in Minneapolis on May 28th, 2018 (which was over the 2018 Memorial Day Weekend) and we haven't hit it since. Since 2000, the average first 100F day is on July 6th.
 

 
Extended Temperature Outlook
 
According to NOAA's CPC, the extended temperature outlook from August 8th - 14th, warmer than average temperatures will settle into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes Region once again. 
 
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Hurricane Forecast Are Better, Not Perfect
By Paul Douglas

"Disasters teach us humility" wrote Saint Anselm of Canterbury, an 11th century Catholic theologian and philospher. He's right.

Hurricane detection, tracking, modeling and warning systems have improved dramatically in the last century. According to NOAA, hurricane track forecasts are roughly 40 percent better today than they were when Hurricane Sandy slammed into New Orleans in 2005. But there's still no way to stop a hurricane.

Florida is lovely in January, but summers are an acquired taste. Hurricane Isaias will soak Florida today with floods and 70-mph gusts, capable of significant coastal flooding. Not even close to a worst- case scenario, but bad enough.

An unstable, irritable sky fires off a few showers and storms here later today. Sunday looks drier and cooler with an annoyingly strong breeze blowing from the northeast. The first half of next week may feel like early September; temperatures dip into the 40s up north early Tuesday. Wut? Have no fear: 80s return the following weekend. Hang on tight!

_____________________________________________

Extended Forecast

SATURDAY: A few T-Storms possible. Winds: W 8-13. High: 80.

SUDNAY NIGHT: Chance of showers and storms early. Winds: N 5-10. Low: 63.

SUNDAY: Cooler, few sprinkles, maybe a shower. Winds: NE 10-20. High: 73.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with a cool breeze. Winds: NE 10-15. Wake-up: 58. High: 70.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Touch of September. Winds: E 5-10. Wake-up: 55. High: 72.

WEDNESDAY: Plenty of sun. A bit milder. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 56. High: 77.

THURSDAY: Some sun. A little more humidity. Winds: S 7-12. Wake-up: 58. High: 80.

FRIDAY: Peeks of sun. Windy and sticky. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 63. High: 83.


This Day in Weather History
August 1st

1955: A thunderstorm in Becker County dumps a foot of rain at Callaway.


Average High/Low for Minneapolis
August 1st

Average High: 83F (Record: 101F set in 1988)
Average Low: 64F (Record: 49F set in 1962)

Record Rainfall: 2.03" set in 1975
Record Snowfall: None


Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
August 1st

Sunrise: 5:59am
Sunset: 8:38pm

Hours of Daylight: ~14 hours & 40 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 2 minutes & 24 seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 20th): ~ 57 minutes


Moon Phase for August 1st at Midnight
1.4 Days Until Full "Sturgeon" Moon

Aug. 3: Full Sturgeon Moon 10:59 a.m. CDT  - This time of year, this large fish of the Great Lakes and other major bodies of water like Lake Champlain is most readily caught. A few tribes knew it as the Full Red Moon because the moon rises looking reddish through sultry haze. Other variations include the Green Corn Moon or Grain Moon. 

See more from Space.com HERE:


What's in the Night Sky?

"As darkness falls in late July and early August 2020, let the bright moon introduce you to the king planet Jupiter and the ringed planet Saturn. As shown on the chart above, you’ll see them easily as the brightest objects near the moon. Both Jupiter and Saturn reached opposition – when Earth flew between these worlds and the sun – in July. So both are nearly at their brightest for the year right now. Thus, although the glare of the almost-full waxing gibbous moon will wash many stars from the blackboard of night, Jupiter and Saturn are easily bright enough to withstand the moon’s glare. Jupiter and Saturn have been close on our sky’s dome throughout 2020. They’re headed for a great conjunction – their first in 20 years – before 2020 ends. That’ll be interesting, but Jupiter and Saturn will be only 30 degrees east of the sunset at the time of their conjunction. They’ll be better when this weekend, when they’re up all night, or in the several months ahead. Come to know them this weekend near the moon, and you’ll enjoy watching them! Far and away, Jupiter is the brighter of these two worlds, beaming some 14 times more brilliantly than Saturn. Even so, Saturn is respectably bright, shining on par with the sky’s brightest stars."

See more from Earth Sky HERE:

(Image Credit: EarthSky.org)


 
National High Temps Saturday
 
Here's a look at high temps across the nation on Saturday. Note that temps in the Western US will be nearly +5F to nearly +10F above average with record highs possible in a few spots. Dangers heat will linger across the Desert Southwest where some locations could warm into the 110s and 120s!
 
 

National Severe Threat Saturday

According to NOAA's SPC, there is a risk of severe storms across parts of the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic Region, where large hail and damaging winds will be possible. There will also be another isolated severe risk along the Front Range of the Rockies from Wyoming to New Mexico.

National Weather Outlook

The national weather outlook through the weekend shows active weather along and east of the Mississippi River Valley, most notably, Hurricane Isaias moving toward the Florida coast on Saturday!
 

 
7 Day Precipitation Outlook
 
According to NOAA's WPC, the 7 day precipiation outlook , areas of heavy rainfall will be possible along the East Coast as Isaias lifts north. Some locations could see 4" to 6"+ with flooding rains possible. Meanwhile, the Western US looks to remain mostly dry through the first full week of August.
 

Climate Stories

(Image Credit: NOAA Satellite)

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